LIVE
ROST
Ross Stores, Inc. · Consumer Discretionary
$232.80
+9.46% this month
VERSUS
⟷
COMPARE
BURL
Burlington Stores, Inc. · Consumer Discretionary
$336.95
+17.77% this month
Scoreboard verdict
Across AI score, momentum, valuation, upside, operating margin
ROST
2
BURL
2
Comparison scoreboard
MIXED SETUPAI Score
ROST ✓55.7
BURL 54.1
1Y Return
ROST ✓+80.40%
BURL +48.22%
Fwd P/E
ROST 28.04
BURL ✓24.43
Target Up.
ROST +6.68%
BURL ✓+8.94%
Op. Margin
ROST 13.38%
BURL N/A
Metrics last refreshed: 6/20/2026
Quick take
ROST vs BURL Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
Ross and Burlington are both off-price retailers competing with TJ Maxx/Marshalls (TJX) in the value apparel and home goods market. Ross is the market execution leader with proven comparable sales outperformance. Burlington is the improving #3 off-price chain executing a smaller-store transformation. Both benefit from off-price's structural advantage over traditional department stores. Ross is the quality compounder; Burlington is the improvement story with store count and format upside.
ROST vs BURL is the off-price retail leader with proven merchant buying expertise, 1,900+ stores expanding toward 2,900, and recession-resilient value positioning (Ross Stores) versus the transforming off-price chain executing smaller-store format improvement to close the performance gap with Ross and TJX (Burlington) — off-price execution leader vs transformation and catch-up story.
Live analysis · updated 6/20/2026
ROST and BURL are closely matched — they split the tracked metrics evenly. ROST has delivered stronger 1-year price return (+80.40% vs +48.22%), though BURL trades at the lower forward P/E (24.43x vs 28.04x). Analyst consensus implies similar upside for both: +6.68% for ROST and +8.94% for BURL.
Normalized 1Y performance
ROST
BURL
Recent returns
ROST
BURL
Analyst price targets & sentiment
ROST · 20 analysts
STRONG BUYHOLDSTRONG SELL
Buy (1.9/5.0)
Price target range
analyst low$124.24
analyst mean$256.18
current price$232.80
+6.7% upside to analyst mean
BURL · 15 analysts
STRONG BUYHOLDSTRONG SELL
Buy (1.7/5.0)
Price target range
analyst low$300.00
analyst high$435.00
analyst mean$367.07
current price$336.95
+8.9% upside to analyst mean
Who should consider this stock?
ROST may suit investors who:
- →prefer the off-price retail execution leader with decades of comparable sales outperformance and merchant buying expertise across 1,900+ stores
- →value Ross's long unit growth runway from 1,900 to 2,900+ target locations providing multi-year store count compounding
- →want recession-resilient consumer discretionary exposure where Ross gains share as consumers trade down from full-price retail during economic stress
- →are comfortable with off-price peer competition from Burlington and TJX, merchandise availability depending on department store inventory excesses, and dd's lower-income format sensitivity
BURL may suit investors who:
- →prefer the off-price improvement story as Burlington's smaller-store format delivers better inventory productivity and customer experience — closing the gap with Ross and TJX
- →value Burlington's unit growth optionality from the smaller format opening more viable real estate locations than the old large-warehouse Burlington format
- →want off-price retail exposure to the transforming #3 player with potential to close the comparable sales gap to peers
- →are comfortable with Burlington still operationally trailing Ross and TJX, merchandise scale requirements at 1,000+ stores, and 'coat factory' brand perception evolution
Performance & AI score
| Metric | ROST | BURL |
|---|---|---|
| AI score | 55.7 | 54.1 |
| AI rank | #246 | #286 |
| Latest close | $232.80 | $336.95 |
| 1M return | +9.46% | +17.77% |
| 6M return | +27.39% | +25.64% |
| 1Y return | +80.40% | +48.22% |
$10,000 invested — hypothetical growth (dividends reinvested)
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | ROST | BURL |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $18.18K (+81.8%) started 2025-06-18 | $14.82K (+48.2%) started 2025-06-18 |
| 5Y ago | $21.28K (+112.8%) started 2021-06-21 | $11.17K (+11.7%) started 2021-06-18 |
| 10Y ago | $51.21K (+412.1%) started 2016-06-20 | $53.03K (+430.3%) started 2016-06-20 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
Valuation & upside potential
| Metric | ROST | BURL |
|---|---|---|
| Market cap | $77.03B | $21.21B |
| Trailing P/E | 33.54 | 34.70 |
| Forward P/E | 28.04 | 24.43 |
| Price/Sales | 2.22 | 1.78 |
| EV/Revenue | 3.27 | 2.17 |
| Analyst target | $256.18 | $367.07 |
| Target upside | +6.68% | +8.94% |
Growth, profitability & risk
| Metric | ROST | BURL |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth | 20.60% | 14.10% |
| Earnings growth | 37.40% | 13.30% |
| EPS growth | +37.40% | +13.30% |
| FCF margin | +8.61% | +1.77% |
| Operating margin | 13.38% | N/A |
| Profit margin | 9.74% | 5.24% |
| ROIC proxy | 38.98% | 39.14% |
| Return on equity | 38.98% | 39.14% |
| Dividend yield | 0.74% | 0.00% |
| Beta | 0.87 | 1.46 |
| Debt/equity | 74.91 | 319.73 |
| Current ratio | 1.54 | 1.16 |
| Quick ratio | 0.88 | 0.40 |
Drawdown & downside risk
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
1Y risk snapshot
ROST max drawdown7.79%
BURL max drawdown19.55%
ROST max wkly drop7.49%
BURL max wkly drop18.24%
5Y risk snapshot
ROST max drawdown44.13%
BURL max drawdown68.87%
ROST max wkly drop21.93%
BURL max wkly drop23.34%
10Y risk snapshot
ROST max drawdown51.41%
BURL max drawdown68.87%
ROST max wkly drop38.97%
BURL max wkly drop38.37%
Performance metrics by period
| Period | Metric | ROST | BURL |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growth | +81.80% | +48.22% |
| CAGR | +81.96% | +48.26% | |
| Sharpe ratio | 2.39 | 1.11 | |
| Max drawdown | 7.79% | 19.55% | |
| Max daily drop | 4.99% | 12.24% | |
| Max wkly drop | 7.49% | 18.24% | |
| 5Y | Growth | +103.58% | +11.73% |
| CAGR | +15.30% | +2.24% | |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.48 | 0.17 | |
| Max drawdown | 44.13% | 68.87% | |
| Max daily drop | 22.47% | 14.95% | |
| Max wkly drop | 21.93% | 23.34% | |
| 10Y | Growth | +367.92% | +430.30% |
| CAGR | +16.70% | +18.17% | |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.51 | 0.50 | |
| Max drawdown | 51.41% | 68.87% | |
| Max daily drop | 22.47% | 29.83% | |
| Max wkly drop | 38.97% | 38.37% |
Business comparison
| Category | ROST | BURL |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Ross Stores, Inc. | Burlington Stores, Inc. |
| Sector | Consumer Cyclical | Consumer Discretionary |
| Industry | Apparel Retail | N/A |
| Core business | Ross Stores operates Ross Dress for Less (1,600+ stores) and dd's Discounts (300+ stores) — off-price retail chains selling brand-name apparel, shoes, home décor, and accessories at 20–60% below department store prices. Ross's merchant team negotiates opportunistic buys of excess inventory, canceled orders, and closeouts from department stores and manufacturers. Ross has maintained strong value perception and market share gains vs full-price retail. Ross is expanding its store count across the US with a long runway toward 2,900+ total locations. | Burlington Stores (formerly Burlington Coat Factory) is an off-price retailer with 1,000+ locations selling apparel, shoes, home goods, accessories, and — historically known for — coats at significantly reduced prices vs department stores. Burlington has been executing a 'smaller, better Burlington' strategy — reducing store sizes from large, cluttered warehouse formats to smaller, more curated merchandise presentations. Burlington's comparable sales and margins have been improving as the smaller-store format improves inventory productivity and customer experience. |
| Investor focus | Investors track comparable store sales, gross margin, and store count growth toward Ross's long-term target of 2,900+ stores. | Investors track comparable store sales vs Ross and TJX peers, gross margin improvement from the smaller-store strategy, and unit growth acceleration. |
ROST strengths
- →Recession-resilient value retail: Ross gains traffic when consumers trade down from department stores during recessions — off-price is counter-cyclical to full-price retail
- →Merchant buying expertise: Ross's treasure hunt model depends on skilled buyers finding exceptional branded merchandise deals — this human capital advantage is difficult to replicate
- →Store count growth runway: 1,900+ current stores vs 2,900+ long-term target provides a multi-year unit growth compounding opportunity
BURL strengths
- →Smaller store strategy is working: Burlington's 'right-sized' stores have better inventory productivity, cleaner presentation, and better customer experience than the old large-format Burlington warehouse stores
- →Off-price value proposition: Burlington's improved merchandising is growing market share from department store and higher-income customers trading down
- →Unit growth acceleration: Burlington has significant unit growth opportunity as the smaller store format opens more viable real estate locations
Risks to watch — ROST
- →Off-price competition: Burlington, TJ Maxx, and Marshalls all compete in the same treasure hunt off-price segment for both merchandise buys and customers
- →Merchandise availability depends on department store inventory excesses — when full-price retail manages inventory better, less excess merchandise is available for off-price buyers
- →dd's Discounts is a lower-income value format that faces more economic sensitivity than Ross Dress for Less
Risks to watch — BURL
- →Burlington is still catching up to Ross and TJX in comparable sales and margin performance — the gap has narrowed but peers remain operationally ahead
- →Off-price retail requires disciplined buying — Burlington's merchandise team must source at sufficient scale to support 1,000+ stores with consistent inventory freshness
- →Burlington's coats heritage was both strength and weakness — seasonal concentration in outerwear has been diluted through merchandise diversification but 'coat factory' perception lingers
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