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GPI
Group 1 Automotive, Inc. · Consumer Discretionary - Franchise Auto Dealerships
$286.77
+0.06% this month
VERSUS
COMPARE
PAG
Penske Automotive Group, Inc. · Consumer Discretionary - Franchise Auto Dealerships and Commercial Vehicles
$217.31
+22.72% this month
Scoreboard verdict
Across AI score, momentum, valuation, upside, operating margin
GPI
2
PAG
2
MIXED SETUP
Comparison scoreboard
MIXED SETUP
AI Score
GPI 39.5
PAG 45.6
1Y Return
GPI -30.02%
PAG +34.20%
Fwd P/E
GPI 6.41
PAG 15.11
Target Up.
GPI +37.72%
PAG -5.46%
Op. Margin
GPI N/A
PAG N/A
Metrics last refreshed: 8/4/2026
Quick take

GPI vs PAG Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside

GPI (Group 1 Automotive) and PAG (Penske Automotive Group) are both large publicly traded franchise auto dealership groups — Group 1 operates 200+ franchises primarily in the U.S. and UK with a broad brand mix, while Penske Automotive operates premium-brand-focused dealerships internationally plus commercial truck dealerships and holds a significant investment in Penske Transportation Solutions logistics, creating a more diversified mobility holding company.

GPI vs PAG is pure-play franchise dealership aggregator with geographic diversification in U.S. and UK (Group 1's broad OEM brand mix, acquisitive consolidation strategy, and fixed operations recurring revenue — auto cycle sensitivity and OEM EV strategy disruption risk) versus premium-brand dealership group with commercial vehicle and logistics diversification (Penske's luxury franchise concentration, PTS equity income from truck leasing, and international market presence — conglomerate valuation complexity and luxury consumer cycle sensitivity).

Live analysis · updated 8/4/2026

GPI and PAG are closely matched — they split the tracked metrics evenly. PAG has delivered stronger 1-year price return (+34.20% vs -30.02%), though GPI has the better forward P/E setup (6.41x vs 15.11x for PAG). Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for GPI (+37.72%) than for PAG (-5.46%).

Normalized 1Y performance
GPI
PAG
Recent returns
GPI
PAG
Analyst price targets & sentiment
GPI · 12 analysts
STRONG BUYHOLDSTRONG SELL
Buy (1.8/5.0)
Price target range
analyst low$320.00
analyst high$465.00
analyst mean$402.33
current price$286.77
+37.7% upside to analyst mean
PAG · 8 analysts
STRONG BUYHOLDSTRONG SELL
Hold (2.7/5.0)
Price target range
analyst low$170.00
analyst high$220.00
analyst mean$205.63
current price$217.31
-5.5% upside to analyst mean
Who should consider this stock?
GPI may suit investors who:
  • Want exposure to a large-scale franchise auto dealership aggregator with a broad brand mix across U.S. and UK markets and an active acquisition strategy to build geographic density
  • Value Group 1's fixed operations (parts and service) as a recurring, high-margin revenue stream that persists regardless of new vehicle sales cycles and benefits from the aging vehicle fleet
  • Prefer a simpler, more focused franchise auto retail business vs. Penske Automotive's more complex conglomerate structure with automotive retail, commercial vehicles, and logistics investment
PAG may suit investors who:
  • Want premium/luxury auto dealership exposure with higher per-vehicle gross profit potential from BMW, Mercedes-Benz, Porsche, and Lexus franchises combined with commercial truck and logistics diversification
  • Value Penske Transportation Solutions' equity contribution as a logistics income stream that diversifies PAG's earnings beyond automotive retail cycles
  • Believe PAG's international presence across U.S., UK, Germany, and Australia provides geographic diversification advantages vs. more domestically concentrated franchise auto dealers
Performance & AI score
Performance & AI score
MetricGPIPAG
AI score39.545.6
AI rank#1129#686
Latest close$286.77$217.31
1M return+0.06%+22.72%
6M return-20.76%+41.13%
1Y return-30.02%+34.20%
$10,000 invested — hypothetical growth (dividends reinvested)

How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?

$10,000 invested — hypothetical growth (dividends reinvested)
PeriodGPIPAG
1Y ago$7.04K (-29.6%)
started 2025-07-31
$13.88K (+38.8%)
started 2025-07-31
5Y ago$17.88K (+78.8%)
started 2021-08-02
$31.03K (+210.3%)
started 2021-08-02
10Y ago$55.38K (+453.8%)
started 2016-08-01
$93.8K (+838.0%)
started 2016-08-01

Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.

Valuation & upside potential
Valuation & upside potential
MetricGPIPAG
Market cap$3.48B$14.28B
Trailing P/E12.0915.81
Forward P/E6.4115.11
Price/Sales0.160.44
EV/Revenue0.410.73
Analyst target$402.33$205.63
Target upside+37.72%-5.46%
Growth, profitability & risk
Growth, profitability & risk
MetricGPIPAG
Revenue growth-5.60%6.00%
Earnings growth-19.70%-1.70%
EPS growth-19.70%-1.70%
FCF marginN/A+0.68%
Operating marginN/AN/A
Profit margin1.31%2.81%
ROIC proxyN/A15.84%
Return on equityN/A15.84%
Dividend yield0.77%2.65%
Beta0.830.83
Debt/equity197.63160.65
Current ratioN/A0.97
Quick ratioN/A0.17
Drawdown & downside risk

Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.

1Y risk snapshot
GPI max drawdown41.03%
PAG max drawdown24.03%
GPI max wkly drop13.33%
PAG max wkly drop7.80%
5Y risk snapshot
GPI max drawdown41.03%
PAG max drawdown24.03%
GPI max wkly drop16.11%
PAG max wkly drop15.48%
10Y risk snapshot
GPI max drawdown70.25%
PAG max drawdown59.98%
GPI max wkly drop46.96%
PAG max wkly drop45.74%
Performance metrics by period
Performance metrics by period
PeriodMetricGPIPAG
1YGrowth-30.02%+34.20%
CAGR-30.04%+34.22%
Sharpe ratio-0.871.04
Max drawdown41.03%24.03%
Max daily drop17.11%5.22%
Max wkly drop13.33%7.80%
5YGrowth+72.90%+173.06%
CAGR+11.59%+22.28%
Sharpe ratio0.360.65
Max drawdown41.03%24.03%
Max daily drop17.11%11.79%
Max wkly drop16.11%15.48%
10YGrowth+401.84%+603.87%
CAGR+17.51%+21.56%
Sharpe ratio0.480.60
Max drawdown70.25%59.98%
Max daily drop21.70%20.61%
Max wkly drop46.96%45.74%
Business comparison
Business comparison
CategoryGPIPAG
CompanyGroup 1 Automotive, Inc.Penske Automotive Group, Inc.
SectorConsumer Discretionary - Franchise Auto DealershipsConsumer Discretionary - Franchise Auto Dealerships and Commercial Vehicles
IndustryN/AN/A
Core businessGroup 1 Automotive is one of the largest publicly traded franchise automobile dealership groups in the United States, operating approximately 200+ new vehicle franchises across domestic (U.S.) and international (UK) markets representing approximately 30+ automotive brands including Toyota, Honda, BMW, Mercedes-Benz, Ford, Chevrolet, Hyundai, and others. Group 1's revenue mix includes new vehicle sales, used vehicle sales, finance and insurance (F&I — arranging financing and selling extended warranties), fixed operations (parts and service repair — the highest-margin segment), and collision repair. Group 1 generates approximately $16-18 billion in annual net revenues. Group 1 has been an acquisitive dealership consolidator, purchasing groups of dealerships to build scale in specific geographic markets.Penske Automotive Group is a diversified mobility company headquartered in Bloomfield Hills, Michigan. PAG's business segments include: Retail Automotive (franchise car dealerships in the U.S. and premium/luxury international markets in the UK, Germany, and other European countries — representing 30+ OEM brands with emphasis on premium brands BMW, Mercedes-Benz, Audi, Porsche, Land Rover, Lexus); Retail Commercial Truck Dealerships (Penske Commercial Vehicles, selling and servicing commercial trucks — primarily Western Star and Mercedes-Benz trucks); and significant investment in Penske Transportation Solutions (PTS, a truck leasing and logistics joint venture with Mitsui). The PTS investment provides Penske Automotive with significant equity income from the truck leasing business that is separate from the dealership operations.
Investor focusInvestors track Group 1's same-store sales growth (comparing current year performance of same-store locations vs. prior year), gross profit per unit (new vehicles and used vehicles), fixed operations revenue growth, and F&I income per vehicle retailed.Investors track PAG's automotive retail same-store sales and gross profit per unit, fixed operations growth, earnings contribution from the Penske Transportation Solutions investment, and capital return programs.
GPI strengths
  • Fixed operations (parts and service) provide recurring high-margin revenue with favorable demographics — vehicle owners who purchased from Group 1 dealers return for service throughout the vehicle's life; aging vehicle fleet (average U.S. vehicle age 12+ years) increases repair demand; fixed operations margins of 35-50%+ are far superior to low-single-digit new vehicle margins
  • Franchise agreements with major OEMs provide protected territories and exclusive representation — Group 1's franchise agreements with Toyota, BMW, Mercedes-Benz, and others provide exclusive representation in specific geographic areas; competitors cannot open competing Toyota franchises within Group 1's protected territory; this territorial protection reduces direct competition
  • UK operations provide geographic diversification — Group 1's UK dealership operations diversify revenue beyond U.S. auto market cycles and provide exposure to European automotive market dynamics
PAG strengths
  • Premium/luxury franchise concentration provides higher per-vehicle gross profit potential — PAG's emphasis on BMW, Mercedes-Benz, Porsche, and Lexus franchises provides higher per-unit gross profits (customers buying $70,000+ vehicles tend to buy extended warranties, premium service packages, and financing products at higher margins than economy car buyers)
  • Penske Transportation Solutions (PTS) equity investment provides logistics income diversification — PTS (truck leasing, logistics services) provides PAG with equity income from a business model that is less cyclically sensitive than new vehicle retail; PTS represents a significant portion of PAG's net income in some years
  • International operations in UK, Germany, and Australia provide geographic diversification — PAG's diversified international presence across multiple automotive markets reduces dependence on any single country's automotive cycle
Risks to watch — GPI
  • Automotive retail is cyclically sensitive — new vehicle sales are highly correlated with consumer confidence, employment, and automotive financing availability; interest rate increases significantly reduce car affordability and new vehicle sales volumes
  • OEM electric vehicle strategy affects franchise dealers — as OEMs transition to EVs, some (particularly Tesla, with direct sales, and Rivian, with an agency model) are challenging the traditional franchise dealer model; OEM pricing policies for EVs may differ from traditional ICE vehicles, affecting dealer profitability
  • Vehicle affordability stress reduces new vehicle sales — new vehicle average transaction prices increased dramatically post-COVID ($48,000+ average in 2023-2024); at this price level with 6-7% car loan rates, monthly payments exceed many consumers' budgets
Risks to watch — PAG
  • Complex holding company structure (automotive retail + commercial vehicles + PTS logistics investment) creates valuation complexity — investors must value multiple businesses with different characteristics; this conglomerate complexity may result in a sum-of-parts discount
  • Premium automotive franchise concentration creates susceptibility to luxury consumer spending softness — in recessions, luxury vehicle demand (BMW, Mercedes, Porsche) may decline more than mass-market vehicles as high-income consumers reduce discretionary spending
  • Commercial vehicle exposure links PAG to trucking industry cycles — commercial truck sales are affected by freight market cycles; weak freight markets reduce fleet replacement demand for commercial trucks
Frequently asked questions
Franchise dealer model: manufacturers (OEMs like Toyota, GM, BMW) license exclusive geographic territories to authorized dealers; dealers pay for the right to represent the brand, must meet facility standards (specific building requirements, technology systems), and must purchase vehicle inventory from the OEM on floor plan credit (dealer loans funded against vehicle inventory); dealers are legally required in most U.S. states to be the distribution channel for new vehicles (manufacturer direct sales to consumers are prohibited under state franchise dealer laws). Revenue sources: new vehicle sales — dealers sell new vehicles at or near MSRP (Manufacturer Suggested Retail Price); new vehicle gross margins are thin (typically 3-6% of transaction price) due to competitive market dynamics; used vehicle sales — dealers acquire used vehicles at trade-in or auction and resell at markup; used vehicle margins are higher than new (10-15%) but vary with market supply/demand; Finance & Insurance (F&I) — dealers arrange financing (automotive loans and leases) and sell extended service contracts, GAP insurance, and other products; F&I income per vehicle is approximately $1,500-2,500 at typical dealers and is the most profitable revenue per transaction; Fixed operations (parts and service) — service departments charge labor rates of $150-200+/hour and sell parts at 30-50% gross margin; fixed operations represent 50%+ of gross profit at most dealers despite being only 10-15% of revenue; this is the recurring, economically resilient portion of dealer revenue. Acquisition consolidation: large dealer groups (Group 1, Penske, AutoNation, Lithia) acquire individual family-owned dealers and small dealer groups to build scale, centralize back-office functions, and apply professional management to improve profitability.
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GPI
+2.8%BUY
PAG
+1.1%HOLD

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